Monday, March 14, 2011

We've been here before...

The last couple of polls have been putting the Liberals at what we'll essentially call 25%, or between 23% and 27%. It seems some people are taking this as cue to panic and/or proclaim the death and irrelevance of the Liberals, especially just before an election.

However, 23-27% isn't exactly something new for either the Liberals or the Conservatives. Take, for instance, the 2004 election, which saw a poll give the Conservatives as low as 23%, and for awhile sat at 26% in a lot of polls.

Or how about during the 2006 election before December. The Conservatives were higher up then in quite a few polls, but you had a lot of them lowballing at 26%, pretty bad for the time. Then in January, you had the Liberals consistently below 30%, often at 26%, and as low as 24%.

And during the 2008 election, we were consistently on the lower end of polls, as low as 21%.

The point is, even at this low level we're not totally out of the running. Campaigns really do matter (as Harper showed us), and much of this is statistical noise that even the pollsters can't agree on. We can't be freaking out yet.

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