Thursday, March 31, 2011

Early Morning Nanos Surprise

Looks like all that campaigning, is starting to pay off, with Nanos Research's 3-day rolling average showing a dramatic narrowing of the race as the Liberal Party jumps up from just under 28% to nearly 33%, with the Conservatives on 39.1% and the NDP down nearly 4 points to 15.9%. The Bloc are also down to 8.7% of the vote (36.4% in QC), the Greens steady under 4%.

That is a very big drop for the NDP and a very big rise for the Liberals - so either that whole idea of "Libs stop Harper" is resonating, or the NDP are really screwing themselves with their policy announcements.

On a basic swing, this would give the Conservatives 138 seats, the Liberals 106, the Bloc 41, and the NDP 23. Doesn't really change the balance of power much, but boy, is that ever a moral victory. And it goes to show that we are the only party that can successfully take on the Conservatives.

Thing is, though, this is an odd poll. In Ontario, for example, the Cons lead with 47.9%, the Libs second with just 32.2%. Our rise comes in BC (from 28.2% to 32.3%), Quebec (22.8% to 25.8%), the Atlantic (41.4% to 47.9%), and the big jump in the Prairies (24.1% to 33.7%). The NDP drops everywhere, but most worringly in Ontario and BC - the drop in Quebec was piled up votes anyways.

In the end, this could all be statistical noise - but lets see if the trend continues. We may just be in this race yet.


  1. Only one poll really matters, all the rest are noise and should be taken with a lot of salt.

  2. That's a fair point, Ian - still, if this sort of trend continues, it's possible you and Ms. Duncan will be looking for Iggy's next rally.