Frank Graves stays true to the Liberal hack persona he's been given by Conservatives, showing an apparent tightening of the 12.5-point lead they enjoyed only a week ago (full results below!).
Topline results are 32.4% Con (down 4.9%), 27.3% Lib (up 2.5%), 14.8% NDP (+0.6), 11.9% Green (+1.2%), and 10.5% Bloc (-0.2%). The lead went from 12.5%, to 5.1%. Life is returning to normal, it seems.
Now, despite the title, no one can be sure whether or not the Oda affair has caused this precipitous drop. Graves himself seems inclined to the voters-don't-want-Con-majority theory, which states that any time the Conservatives get close to that majority, they will fall back down to Earth a little. It's probable both are having an effect - but we'll have to wait and see until other polls come out, to see if these results are repeated. As I say, Ekos has some funny results in individual polls sometimes, but usually they're pretty good at following trends. It was true for the bump up - will it be true for the smack down?
Apparently just after I did this, CBC put up Ekos' full results.
Moving on, some interesting tidbits:
- Ontario now shows a Liberal lead, with 36.4% vs. 35.9% for the Cons
- Quebec still sees the federalist parties struggling, with the Liberals only at 18.8%, Cons at 16.2%, while the Bloc sails with 39.9%
- As the Liberals rise in Eastern Canada, they seemingly lose second place in BC and the Prairies as the NDP gain support in those provinces (25.2% in BC, 27.8% in Saskitoba), though the Libs keep a strong second in Alberta with 24.4%
An interesting poll, to be sure.