Tuesday, February 15, 2011

News from Newfoundland - and Ivison is an idiot (not news?)

Anyone here about that by-election to replace the guy who was the most popular Premier in all of Canada? No? I'm not surprised. But, the polls are pretty much closed, and it looks like... yep. Progressive Conservative landslide.

As of about 8:00 pm tonight, here are the results:

Grant Vaughan (PC) - 2109 votes (63.6%)
Mark Watton (Liberal) - 1097 (33.1%)
Rosie Myers (NDP) - 112 votes (3.4%)

For those of you who don't know, Mark Watton (the Liberal candidate) is a blogger on Liblogs who goes under the name "nottawa," whose blog you definitely should read. He's also managed in this election to bring his party's vote share up above both its 2003 and 2007 counts, as well as the 2001 by-election that brought Danny Williams in. He didn't win, but he did a bang up job. Congrats!

Also in news from Newfoundland, we find this oddly-fawned-over poll for federal voting intentions in Newfoundland, courtesy of the National Post and everyone's favourite cheerleader, John Ivison:
The new poll has the Conservatives at 32.1%, double their percentage of the popular vote in 2008. The Liberals are at 21%, down from 47% last time, while the NDP are at 7.6%, down from 40% in 2008. The sample size was 754 and the poll has a margin of error +/- 3.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
That's right, the Conservatives are up to 32.1% of the vote, compared to 16.5% they got in 2008. The Liberals are down to 21% from 46.6% in 2008, and the NDP are down to 7.6%, from 40%... er, no, sorry, 33.9% in 2008. Good fact checking right there, NP.

Now you may notice that there's something of a gap there, with about, oh, 40% of the electorate being undecided, a fun fact that the NP article actually left out, and that only people who bother to check can actually note. That makes this poll essentially useless. But don't let that stop you from speculating on a Conservative sweep, John.

Oh, and for the record, William's ABC call was "Anything But Conservative", not "Anyone But Conservatives". Jeesh.

(Fyi, without the undecideds, it broke down to 53% Con, 34.5% Lib, 12.5% NDP).


Aw, it got updated - now he mentions the 40% undecided (though he takes it seriously still). I also noticed the bit about Siobhan Coady winning by less than 1000 votes last time, which is also incorrect - she won by 1,047. Judy Foote also won by over 7,000 votes, not just 6,000, in Random-Burin-St, George's.

I think the NP needs a new factchecker.

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