Though I was hoping with some far-off hope that Nanos, one of the more accurate and reliable pollsters in Canada, would prove all of the recent polls by Ekos, Ipsos, and Harris wrong about the sad state of Liberal support in the past few days, it seems that we just can't get a break.
Topline numbers are:
39.7% Con, 26.6% Lib, 18.9% NDP, 9.9% BQ (37.3 in QC), 4.9% Green.
That 13% lead is on the high-end of what we've seen (the low-end being Harris-Decima's 10-point lead), but I'm really inclined to believe that Nanos, so if any of you wished to panic, now's not a bad time to do so.
Interestingly, Nanos' regionals are both similar and different from what we've seen in the sibling polls. Of note is a stronger position for the Libs in Quebec (24.4%, compared to the under-20% seen in other polls), though Nanos also ends up being the first non-Leger and CROP I've seen that gives the NDP over 15% in Quebec, namely 16.8%(!), which may or may not be an omen, I can't be too sure.
In Ontario, Nanos actually shows a drop for the Conservatives, who came down from 42.3% to 39%. The Liberals came down as well, from 35.4% to 32.8%, while the NDP are up big (again, !), 19.3% to 23.4%. This, along with the high numbers in Quebec, explains why unlike the other pollsters, Nanos has the NDP up at 18%.
But also of note is Nanos similar situation in the West. For example, in the Prairies (which is AB, SK, and MN in Nanos), the Conservatives hold a lead with 64.6%, followed (if you can call it that) by the Liberals at 18%, and the NDP at 12.7%. In BC, similar numbers show a Con lead with 44.6%, followed by the Libs at a strong 26.2%, and the NDP with 21.2%. So, for some reason, we suck in the East these days, but we're on a slight upswing in the West. Hm.
However, don't let that 13-point lead fool you - the Conservatives are still stuck below a majority. According to 308.com, they sit at 147 seats while the Liberals sit at 84. Canadian Election Watch's rolling average has them at 149 seats, compared to 74 for the Liberals - though that includes pretty much all polls over the last few weeks, heavily influencing the results. It's interesting, to say the least - though I disagree with some of the conclusions about Quebec.
Let me explain why: most people would consider "significant representation" to be representation that, at the very least, is above 10%. That is the bar I use, considering that most people consider the NDP to have "significant representation," though they only have 12% of the House of Common's seats.
Now, it may be on the low end of expectations of what "significant" may or may not be, but consider that, in the Election Watcher's projection or 308.com's poll round-up, the Conservatives get about 9 seats in la belle province - or 12% of Quebec's 75 ridings. They currently have 11 of Quebec's 75 seats.
So, I think in reality, if the Conservatives were to get a majority government, those 10ish seats in QC should be considered relatively significant relative to the province's expectations. He's right about having little representation in the greater Montreal area - but 10 seats are still better than nothing, which is what most people expect the Cons to get.
It's also worth considering that in 1979, the last Albertan Conservative leader, Joe Clark, nearly earned a majority government with only 2 seats in Quebec - he ended up only 6 seats short. Even if he had earned those six other seats in Quebec, he still would have only had 8 out of 75 seats. How's that as food for thought?