Monday, February 14, 2011

Irish Polling Round-up

So with the Irish campaign for the in more-or-less full swing, you'd expect there to be a flurry of polls and projections out, right? Well, not quite, at least not so far.

After scouring the web, I could only find three reliable sources for Irish projections. One was Election Predict, run by Betfair and a polling company, which is a cross somewhere between a bet site and an actual projection site, with regular updates on polling and what appears to be regular projections. Their current "projection" is 64 seats for Fine Gael with 30% of the vote; 38 seats for Labour with 24% of the vote; 31 seats for Fianna Fail at 16% of the vote; 13 seats for Sinn Fein at 13% of the vote; and the Greens with 1 seat at 1% of the vote. The rest is taken up by Independent candidates, sitting at about 15% of the vote and 18 seats. This, by the way, is fairly normal. Unlike here, Independents are often elected; in 2002, 14 of them were elected with about 8% of the vote. And given the lackluster choices this election, it's not surprising they may rise again.

The other projection site is Teddy/Nick over at RidingbyRiding.com, who's Canadian, but predicts stuff anyways. His projections are somewhat similar to the professional ElectionPredict, with 69 FG, 38 Lab, 30 FF, 11 SF, 1 Green, and 14 Independents. The only difference is that he is showing a prediction of three seats for the ULA, or more aptly put, those crazy leftist guys.

The Irish Polling Report is also good, if a bit muddled, also with their own projections, which differs from the other two projection sites, with their most recent one (though based on a single poll), giving FG 73 seats, Labour 30, FF 17, SF 11, 2 Greens, and 23 "others," which could mean Independents plus the ULA.

Meanwhile, Ireland's got a plethora of pollsters, and whiles a little slow-going right now, they're sure to pick up. Here's a list of them below, so you can watch how varied FF is, waffling between oblivion and humiliation:

Ipsos MRBI (Irish version of Ipsos Reid)
RedC
Millward Brown Lansdowne

Irish media is also (obviously) covering this to great degree, though the best site I've found by far for analysis is Irish Times. Also good is RTE News, and Elections Ireland, which details all candidates and will have live results (I hope!).

If you're interested in this stuff... enjoy!

No comments:

Post a Comment