The poll by EKOS Research, released Friday, puts the Tories 12 points ahead of the Liberals – 37.3 per cent compared to 24.8 per cent for the Liberals.That's right, that's a 12.5% lead the Conservatives have there. It comes mostly out of Ontario, where the Conservatives lead with 41.5%, compared to the Liberal's 30.3%, and the NDP's 13.6% (with the Greens close by at 12.0%). Crazy, crazy stuff.
Other highlights include a Conservative second-place position in Quebec (20.1% compared to the Libs 16.2%), though the Bloc easily dominate with 38.7%. Oddly enough, though, the Liberals hold on to fairly strong second-place positions in BC (26.5%) and the Prairies (25.8%), while the NDP are facing some pretty bad numbers all across the board, coming in at only 14.7% nationally despite the Liberal weakness.
But, never fear, fellow Liberals - the Conservatives aren't buying it:
[A Conservative memo] notes that this poll is also inconsistent with other “recent published surveys."And they're most likely right. This has come completely out of right field and unless other polls can confirm these findings, or at the very least this trend, then it's definitely an outlier. I can't really find any explanation for why the numbers for the Liberals would drop so precipitously - unless Pucapab had the opposite effect is was supposed to? It also can't be the issue surrounding minimum sentencing, since it seems that Ekos was in the field before the Liberals announced their intentions, unless the entire fall occurred on February 9th alone, which I highly doubt.
“In the past, pollsters, have sometimes reported support for our Party that is unusually high relative to the prevailing data, only to have the anomaly corrected in a subsequent poll, giving the artificial impression of negative momentum” according to the memo.
Indeed, this poll has caused a stir – it is showing that the Harper Tories are heading even closer to majority territory. There will be even more election speculation if other polls confirm the EKOS finding.
We'll just have to wait and see, I guess.