Saturday, February 12, 2011

Holy $#*& That's a Big Lead

The newest Ekos poll is a tad upsetting if you're a Liberal:
The poll by EKOS Research, released Friday, puts the Tories 12 points ahead of the Liberals – 37.3 per cent compared to 24.8 per cent for the Liberals. 
That's right, that's a 12.5% lead the Conservatives have there. It comes mostly out of Ontario, where the Conservatives lead with 41.5%, compared to the Liberal's 30.3%, and the NDP's 13.6% (with the Greens close by at 12.0%). Crazy, crazy stuff.

Other highlights include a Conservative second-place position in Quebec (20.1% compared to the Libs 16.2%), though the Bloc easily dominate with 38.7%. Oddly enough, though, the Liberals hold on to fairly strong second-place positions in BC (26.5%) and the Prairies (25.8%), while the NDP are facing some pretty bad numbers all across the board, coming in at only 14.7% nationally despite the Liberal weakness.

But, never fear, fellow Liberals - the Conservatives aren't buying it:

[A Conservative memo] notes that this poll is also inconsistent with other “recent published surveys."

“In the past, pollsters, have sometimes reported support for our Party that is unusually high relative to the prevailing data, only to have the anomaly corrected in a subsequent poll, giving the artificial impression of negative momentum” according to the memo.

Indeed, this poll has caused a stir – it is showing that the Harper Tories are heading even closer to majority territory. There will be even more election speculation if other polls confirm the EKOS finding.
And they're most likely right. This has come completely out of right field and unless other polls can confirm these findings, or at the very least this trend, then it's definitely an outlier. I can't really find any explanation for why the numbers for the Liberals would drop so precipitously - unless Pucapab had the opposite effect is was supposed to? It also can't be the issue surrounding minimum sentencing, since it seems that Ekos was in the field before the Liberals announced their intentions, unless the entire fall occurred on February 9th alone, which I highly doubt.

We'll just have to wait and see, I guess.

19 comments:

  1. How does Harper Manage to do this , with all he has done wrong,to this Country? Does the pollster phone the same people all the time? A great many letters on certain subjects, to the Globe and Mail , do not like Harper. Are people complete imbeciles ? I have never been polled.

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  2. I am very angry..perhaps, the word 'Majority,' will scare a great many off.

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  3. Not to worry, Harper has told his people to ignore it.

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  4. A Eliz,

    Heh, I'm not sure, but it sure is a bit odd. That being said, sometimes a bump in the polls does actually just happen, sometimes for reasons unknown, be it outlier or not. Harper frankly hasn't done a great many things to upset people on the level that is really required for uninspiring opposition leaders to topple him.

    Rotterdam,

    I know, though if you go over to 308.com, Eric thinks its totally unjustified. May be right for all I know.

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  5. This is what Mr.Robert Fife said on his tweet. http://bit.ly/idmNae We'll see if it's an outlier. As to Conservatives not believing the poll,take it with a grain of salt. If they came out cheering they be looked at as if wanting an election and arrogant also I think they don't want their supporters and members to lower their guards down. It's like a hockey coach of the top team in the NHL playing the worst team. What wiuld he say to his players? That it will be a cake walk? Of course not! He will make the worst team sound better than what they really are. Same thing here I think. So let us wait and see.

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  6. Proud Canadian,

    That is exactly right, we do have to wait and see. Apparently somewhere an Ipsos person mentioned something about having similar numbers for the Libs, though not out of their most recent poll. One has to wonder though how this drop came about if it is indeed confirmed.

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  7. Volkov,

    Here is a posibility,Mr.Ignatieff has threaten to vote down the budget! Knowing full well that if the budget is rejected by all three opposition parties we have an election. Remember back in the fall of 2009 when Mr.Ignatieff said that your time was up? What happened to the liberals polls number after that? They went down like a ton of bricks while at the same time conservative numbers shut upwards. The same thing may be happening here.

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  8. Harper is sooo buying it. In fact, he's doing his happy dance while he's eating his bacon & eggs as we speak. Typical politician tactic--downplay his good fortune.

    According to the EKOS report, the cons have broken into the metro Toronto area as well.

    Watch for a poison pill in that upcoming budget.. like that 2$ per subsidy vote.

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  9. Oh and PUCAPAB was a corny ad with crude sketches that come right out of the "Simon from the Land of Chalk Drawings" and a dumb song. Really! Harper just attacked him! What is Iggy going to do about it? A silly song and 1st grader sketches won't do it. It's time for bumper sticker, monosyllabic slogans and character assasinating ads.

    The Liberals need their own Guy Giorno and Jenni Byrne running their war room. Anything short of that will fail miserably.

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  10. Proud Canadian,

    Problem is that he's been saying that since January, and there's been no perceptible decline since then, at least not until now. This is a major, major drop that just decided to show up one day, so while I might be inclined to agree with you under other circumstances, I can't really agree here. Doesn't fit into the timeline, unless Canadians are really that slow in reading the news.

    CK,

    Aye, probably - managing expectations while freaking out themselves. Ha.

    Looks like Canadian politics is actually interesting for the next little while.

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  11. CK (part 2),

    I liked Pucapab, though pretty sure it was a Young Lib initiative. They usually do that kind of stuff. They like to humour us.

    Also, never underestimate Peter Donolo and the team they have up there right now. Lot of the media have actually been paying the DonOLO its dues right now for bringing together the Liberal message into a more coherent form than it has been. They can surprise you.

    And they already have bumper sticks, though the one I got is targeted for women voters - "he's just not that into you." Doesn't really work for me. xD

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  12. Volkov,

    That may be true,but parliament wasn't sitting back in January! Politics wasn't a priority we were still under the influence of the Christmas break. Now that parliament is back politics on the front pages and the budget just weeks away. The speculation on whether we will have an election will grow with every passing days until one of the oppositions parties says we'll support it.

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  13. Proud Canadian,

    Good point, but I'm not entirely convinced, at least not right now. Until another poll can confirm this kind of drop and rise for the Libs and Cons, I remain skeptical (as all should be). When there's more data to go off of, then maybe your argument will have more traction. But, unfortunately, one poll does not a trend make. Though it is certainly fun to panic over!

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  14. PUCAPAB - a young Liberal initiative-- how young? 10 years old? C'mon! I'm being pretty generous. I've seen better drawings from 1st graders.

    Sorry, but if you want your party to win, it's time to stop sugar coating and it's time to stop with happy optimism. This is terrible news.

    Those poor numbers certainly indicate the preliminary realisation of Gerry Nicholls' prophecy.

    Even if Harper doesn't put a poison pill in the upcoming budget (per vote subsidy)-- and I think he will with those numbers, what's to stop him from going to the GG to drop the writ?

    The GG, if he likes his job, will have no choice but to give it to him. He too, can be replaced by someone more compliant. Don't think it can happen? Read Page 187-188, chapter 14--Harperland-- 2008; coalition crisis, basically, if Michaelle Jean wouldn't have granted his demand for prorogation, he would have made a case to the queen to appoint someone more "compliant".

    I seriously hope the Liberals are taking these numbers seriously and rethinking their whole game.

    As for Donolo, I think he's lost his touch. Like I said, they need their own Guy Giorno and Jenni Byrne.

    Also, their next leader better not be an intellectual... but someone from the beer and pretzel crowd.

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  15. CK,

    Liberals take these numbers seriously, trust me. But there's not much anyone can do. Even Layton, the beer-and-pretzel favourite, can't find enough traction to propel his party to anything more than slightly-better-than-average results. The political scene in this country is, quite simply, flat, and no amount of Liberal switcheroo's of leaders and strategists has seen fit to change it.

    Harper coasts by because he doesn't do anything to totally alienate everyone, though when he does, he pays for it. Our problem, and "our" meaning the entire Opposition, not just the Liberals, is that we can't keep Canadians attention focused long enough on the Harper government's shortcomings to matter. That day-to-day scandal thing doesn't work until we reinforce it, and regardless of the production values of Pucapab, that's a good attempt at trying to do so.

    So I think that we are taking it seriously, and we're making due with what we've got. It's not for lack of trying, just for lack of resources, and frankly, interest by anyone outside of this blogosphere.

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  16. Harper coasts by because he doesn't do anything to totally alienate everyone, though when he does, he pays for it

    No he doesn't. He still remains ahead of the Liberals and he is forgiven for his transgressions a lot faster than the Liberals are for their's.

    In fact, Harper can throw a quadriplegic in front of a moving vehicle, mug an old lady, and steal food from a child and he'd still remain on top.

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  17. That's because, as I said, Canadians have relatively short attention spans. Besides, the only scandals to kind of stick - prorogation, arts funding, etc. - appeal to basically small segments of the population. There's yet to be a huge scandal committed by Harper to alienate the vast electorate against him.

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  18. The majority of 35+ folks still watch television, and as a result, anti-Iggnatieff, pro-government commercials work. Sorry, Internet YouTube videos may excite a few thousand folks, but that is 100's of times less penetration than an ad during The Big Bang Theory.

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  19. Sad but true, Peter, sad but true.

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