Wednesday, January 12, 2011

Angus Reid - we can give the Liberals good numbers too!

Well, sort of.

For the first time in a long while, Angus Reid has given the Liberals a score greater than... 26%. To be exact, the three polls done since early August 2010 have all had the Liberals at 26%, with varying degrees of Conservative and NDP support, including a huge 11-point lead in October that didn't fit anywhere else.

This week's poll - the first in 2011 - is slightly more interesting. The topline results are as follows: 34% Con, 28% Lib, 17% NDP, 11% Bloc, 8% Grn.

So, a 6-point lead, which means that, strangely, Angus Reid might actually be falling in line with other pollsters! Though, if we get more polling tomorrow that shows a closer or larger race, well, I won't be surprised.

Some interesting notes in the AR poll:

- Ontario, as per usual, is essentially tied, with the Cons sitting at 38%, and the Libs at 36%. The NDP are 20% behind the Liberals, sitting at a low 16% (16% is low for them, considering Layton has fallen below 18% in an election since 2004)

- Quebec shows the usual Bloc domination (43%) and Liberal second-runners-up (22%), with the NDP (15%) and Cons (13%) fighting over third place. Though 15% is higher than most give the NDP in the province, it's lower than Leger and CROP, which I'm starting to suspect are very flawed

- Saskitoba's results give a close race between the Cons (44%) and the NDP (36%), unlike other pollsters which give the Liberals second place and the NDP lower-than-expected, though once again, a high margin-of-error should be taken into account

Another interesting sidenote: Harper and Ignatieff's disapproval ratings are almost the same, at 46% and 49% respectively and approval at 26% and 12%. Layton's disapproval is at 31%, but his approval is at 26% - meaning all three party leaders suck. Iggy just tends to suck a little more.

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