Sunday, December 12, 2010

Ipsos Reid poll shows 10-point lead.. with Liberal growth?

Apparently, Ipsos Reid came out with a poll showing a staggering 10-point lead for the governing Conservatives, sitting at 39% of the vote, while the Liberals sit with 29%, the NDP 12%, Bloc 10%, and Greens 9%. This would tend to reinforce the other three polls this week showing a relatively high lead for the Conservatives (Nanos, Angus Reid, Abacus), while somewhat discrediting Ekos, though without the regionals, it's really hard to tell what is going on where.

However, the problem is that this IR poll, unlike Abacus and AR, Ipsos gives the Liberals a healthy 29% of the vote, clear growth from 2008's 26%, unlike Abacus and AR's 24% and 26% respectively. This is because the NDP have dropped from the last Ipsos Reid poll a whole 4%, which is exactly how much the Conservatives rose, from 35% to 39%. The Liberals staying at their happy 29% from last time, the Greens dropping 3%, and the Bloc 1%, meaning 4% shifted to "Others" as well.

So while the 10-point lead might seem reassuring to our blue friends, confirming all the doom and gloom of the past week, Ipsos seems to be working out its own strange trend, separate from the others. I wouldn't say it confirms any other polls, nor would I call it an outlier. It just, well, is. Until I can get a hold of detailed regionals, it may confirm any number of suspicions.

And, fyi, I'd be happy with this sort of result in a general election. It's a sane result, not this constant splitting of the vote. The Liberals stick themselves near 30%, the Conservatives near 40%, maybe they eek out a majority, but the Liberals get a strong footing nonetheless, retaining their power in Parliament and politics. Sometimes you have to lose in order to win, you know?

No comments:

Post a Comment