Thursday, December 30, 2010

Good Times in Manitoba

After the Christmas holidays (days after which I've been relatively busy with, so excuse my lack of activity!), it's always nice to see that the Liberal Party isn't struggling everywhere these days, despite what Ekos, Angus, and Abacus want us to believe.

The good news for the federal parties recently comes out of the province of Manitoba, where we won a former NDP stronghold, and we're also polling relatively well. So well, we're now the clear seconds in the province, beating down the NDP to the paltry 19% that we ourselves received in the 2008 election.

Jumping up from 19% to 26% is a 33% increase in votes, which means that in certain ridings in the province, we're going to do very well indeed.

Two of these ridings are Saint Boniface, and Winnipeg South - the two easiest Liberal targets in the province. That is especially true if the numbers in Winnipeg that Probe Research showed (43% Con, 32% Lib, 19% NDP), because while Churchill may also be considered a target, our numbers outside of Winnipeg (56% Con, 19% Lib, 16% NDP) are not too hot. These are the numbers from those ridings in 2008:

Saint Boniface
Conservative: 19,.440 votes, 46.3%
Liberal: 14,728 votes, 35.1%
NDP: 5,502 votes, 13.1%
Green: 2,104 votes, 5.0%

Winnipeg South
Conservative: 19,943 votes, 48.8%
Liberal: 14,108 votes, 34.6%
NDP: 4,671 votes, 11.4%
Green: 1,936 votes, 4.7%

So, let's have some fun with these results, shall we? In Winnipeg in 2008, the Conservatives had 42% of the vote, the NDP 27%, and the Liberals 24%. Using Probe's poll, that represents an increase of 2.4% for the Cons, 33.3% for the Liberals, and a decrease of 29.6% for the NDP. It also represents a decrease of 16.7% for the Greens (who go from 6% in 2008, to 5% in the Probe poll).

Apply those numbers to the raw votes, and we get this:

Saint Boniface
Conservative: 19,907, 43.9%
Liberal: 19,632, 43.3%
NDP: 3,873, 8.5%
Green: 1,753, 3.9%

Winnipeg South
Conservative: 20,422, 46.2%
Liberal: 18,806, 42.6%
NDP: 3,288, 7.4%
Green: 1,513, 3.4%

Not too shabby, eh? With these sorts of numbers, those ridings become very much too-close-to-call, especially Saint Boniface. That's always good news, especially if it means getting rid of Shelly Glover.

We also have candidates in these ridings that must be happy right now with these numbers: Raymond Simard in Saint Boniface, the former MP and a great candidate; and Terry Duguid, a consistent Liberal candidate in other ridings, who does relatively well. Let's give them our support!

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