Wednesday, December 8, 2010

December = Conservative poll growth?

That appears to be so, at least according to the three recent polls out:

Nanos (change since last poll):
Cons: 38.1 (+1.0)
Lib: 31.2 (-0.4)
NDP: 17.4 (+1.8)
Bloc: 10.2 (-0.6)
Green: 3.2 (-1.0)

Abacus:
Con: 35 (+2)
Lib: 24 (-1)
NDP: 20 (-1)
Bloc: 10 (=)
Green: 10 (=)

Angus Reid:
Con: 38 (+1)
Lib: 26 (=)
NDP: 18 (-1)
Bloc: 10 (=)
Green: 7 (+1)

Well, OK, not a lot of growth, just Liberal misery. Abacus, in all of their two polls done, have some pretty f-ed up results, and regular readers will know of my attitude towards Angus Reid. Both Abacus and AR are online polls, and an 11- and 12-point lead for both, while others show between a 5-7 point lead, just goes to show how off-trend these polls really are. I may be proven wrong in the end, but until that time, I don't trust them, they're just pretty to look at.

Before anyone freaks out, starts calling Harper majorities here and there, let's wait until we have some more data. This week is Ekos' polling week, and while individually they're always strange, Ekos tends to reflect trends accurately. Then we can panic.

Of note: both Abacus and AR show almost the exact same results in Quebec, with the Bloc nearly or at 40%, and the three other parties all within one point of eachother, and under 20%. They also show almost the exact same results in Ontario, at least for the Liberals, mired around 30%, a first in a long time. Nanos' polling doesn't reflect anything like that. I have to ask: do AR and Abacus share information? Or is it just a coincidence?

6 comments:

  1. This week is Ekos' polling week...........

    So. It is to be Frank Graves to the rescue again, eh?

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  2. I don't know what "rescue" Frank Graves ever offers, as he's one of the pollsters that consistently gives the Liberals a fairly low score.

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  3. I think the Tories need to be in the 40's if they want to realistically form a majority or the Lib support to fall to the mid 20's or lower. Remember that their numbers aren't overly effecient but if their numbers are trending up in Ontario or BC then maybe there is something to majority talk

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  4. I agree, Titanium. Their problem doesn't seem so much as their ability to complete against the Liberals, but the fact that the other two Opposition parties can hold enough ground to deny the Conservatives a majority. That makes an 11-point lead over the Liberals in 2008 nothing but a strong minority.

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  5. EKOS out just now with the title of "Majority Slipping Away For The Tories", with the main issue, social issues over economy, LOL. And of course, at Tories 33 Liberals 29, in spite of all the other polls, once again as I've said, Frank Graves comes to the rescue with ANOTHER outlier.

    Wow. Colour me surprised.

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  6. Glenn,

    Is it really an outlier? Ekos has always been consistent with its trends, and this isn't exactly out of the realm of possibility of even the other polls, margin of error and etc. involved. Who knows?

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