Thursday, November 25, 2010

Your Bi-weekly Ekos Poll

... shows an interesting, if sadly boring, movement between two parties over the two-week period that they did their polling (from Nov. 10 to Nov. 23). But, it seems more like Ekos simply corrected itself from their last bout of polling, and now come in line with all other major pollsters out there.

Here's the topline results:

Con: 32.6% (29.4%)
Lib: 28.0% (28.6%)
NDP: 16.0% (19.3%)
Green: 10.1% (10.7%)
Bloc: 9.6% (9.3%)

From the last Ekos polling (which is in brackets above), it represents a gain of nearly 3% for the Conservatives, a drop of 0.6% for the Liberals, a drop of over 3% for the NDP, and essentially static levels for the Bloc and the Greens. Interesting that the majority of the movement seems between the NDP and the Conservatives, and however flawed this Ekos poll may be, it may be a sign of a slight trend. We'll have to wait for other polling to come out to see if their findings are reinforced.

But, where did the NDP drop come from? And was it really a drop at all?

To start off, the biggest change in NDP support comes from the notoriously small-sample Atlantic Canada, where in the last Ekos poll they attained nearly 45% of the vote. This time, however, they've dropped down to 20.2%, the majority of it shifting to the Conservatives, who bumped up from 17% to take the lead with 36%. The Liberals barely moved, going from 30.6% in the last polling, to 32.2% now. The Greens sit with 8.3%.

This seems in line with other recent pollsters, though they disagree about whether there is a Conservative or Liberal lead in the region. However, the three most recent pollsters that I can find full tables on (stupid Ipsos), all show the NDP sitting around 20% of the vote, or at least ranging from 17% to 23%.

So, it's a fair assumption to say that most of the NDP's drop came from Atlantic Canada. They also dropped just over 4% in Ontario, from 19.6% to 15.3% now, which is not insignificant. Once again, the Conservatives seem to take the lion's share, bumping up from 32.9% to the lead with 36.6%. The Liberals also bump up, from 34.8% to 35.9%.

In fact, except for BC and Quebec, where they only marginally increased support, the NDP dropped everywhere, all to the advantage of the Conservatives. The Liberals, meanwhile, suffered their losses mostly in BC, where they dropped from a high of 30.3%, to 21.7%. However, as with the NDP's Atlantic Canada issues, 30% in British Columbia seems a tad high for the Liberals.

So, what to take away from this? Life is returning to its boring, stagnant self in the polling world: Liberals stuck between 27% and 29%, Conservatives low but entrenched with 33-35%, the NDP suffering but alive with around 16%, and the Greens and Bloc battle it out for fourth place around 10%. In other words: deadlocked. The Canadian political scene doesn't seem to be moving anytime soon, at least not until we know the results of the by-elections on November 29th...

2 comments:

  1. You can email the Ispos Reid people directly for full tables. Look for the name in the article and request the information.(Works for me)

    Can you imagine a Pollster refusing to share the data?

    ReplyDelete
  2. I can, but I doubt its done often.

    ReplyDelete