TOPLINE: Con - 29.4, Lib - 28.6, NDP 19.3, Grn - 10.7, Bloc - 9.3
The Conservatives under 30%? Hm. I can see the Liberal, and even the Dipper numbers as believable, but that CPC number is just weird. The regionals might help explain why:
BC: Lib - 30.3, Con 28.2, NDP - 20.6, Grn - 16.5
AB: Con - 55.7, Lib - 21.0, NDP - 11.2, Grn - 10.2
M/S: Con - 39.4, NDP - 29.3, Lib - 19.1, Grn - 11.5
ON: Lib - 34.8, Con - 32.9, NDP - 19.6, Grn - 10.3
QC: Bloc - 37.2, Lib - 23.0, Con - 15.7, NDP - 11.0, Grn - 9.3
AT: NDP - 44.5, Lib - 30.6, Con - 17.0, Grn - 7.3
The Conservatives do poorly in every region, even in Alberta, where 55.7% could be considered too low for them if that were the actual general election result. Indeed, the only place they hold leads are in the three prairie provinces. If it weren't for those provinces, the Liberals would probably have a lead right now. Does that sound familiar to anyone?
The Atlantic Canada result is slightly hard to believe, but according to 308.com, even at 45% the NDP could only manage to elect 7 members from the region. That's a kick in the pants if there ever was one.
An interesting comparison by Ekos shows side-by-side the difference between this poll, and a poll done by Ekos the same time last year:
I'd question, however, how good of an idea it is to compare this poll, with some very strange regionals, to this poll last year, which seemed relatively in line with others. So, I did my own little investigation, and did a basic average of all polls between October 1st and Nov 11., this year and last year, and this is what I got:
|Lighter = 2009, Darker = 2010|
Which means, all in all, the Opposition parties have gained at the expense of the Conservatives since this time last year, which makes sense overall. Without the famous "Your time is up" speech, the Conservatives have no fear-of-an-election bump to boost them, so the Liberals and NDP make some modest gains at their expense. What was a nearly 12-point lead, fell back to a 5.2-point lead, simply because the Liberals haven't managed to screw themselves up again.
So, take it as you will. Ekos shows more or less something similar, just not as exaggerated.