Monday, November 29, 2010

Parts of Ontario and Manitoba Vote 2010 live blog

It's 9:00 PM Eastern Standard Time, do you know who your closest relative in one of these three ridings voted for?

As promised, this is my little election night live-blog. Others going include CalgaryGrit, and Eric of 308.com is also bound to say something interesting via Twitter tonight.

Friendly reminder, if you're looking to watch the results for yourself, check out this site here.
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1:15: Final results out of Vaughan: 19,260 Fantino, 18,263 Genco, 673 Bordian, 477 Rodriguez-Lorrain, 523 Others. Media is already jumping on the back of Ignatieff, saying Vaughan is his undoing - but what about the NDP? Does no one else notice the lack of votes for Canada's third party, and the tightened race between Liberals and Conservatives? Or the collapse of the Greens? Well? If you're going to expound on by-elections as signs of national turmoil, at least do it right.

1:07: DSRM final results: 8,176 Sopuck, 3,785 Harder (NDP), 1,481 Scott Sarna, 809 Storey (Green), 160 Other. 

1:04: Question: what is the bigger upset? A Liberal win in Winnipeg North, or a Conservative win in Vaughan?

12:53: Doesn't appear to be much going on now, but its safe to say Fantino has won, probably with a 1000-vote margin, maybe a little more, maybe a little less, about 2-3 points. Not exactly a rout, but a win nonetheless.

 12:32: Final count in Winnipeg North: 7,305 Lamoureux, 6,508 Chief, 1,645 Javier, 115 Harvey (Green), 209 others. Not bad, Mr. Lamoureux, not bad.
 
12:27: I think its safe to say that Fantino will pull off a win in Vaughan, though with less than 1,000 votes separating the two, meaning that there's a good likelihood a general election will have Fantino dumped. That being said, even though the Liberals lost Vaughan, they managed to steal a stronghold away from the NDP, keep their sitting members at 77, and able to say that Vaughan was close, local factors influenced things more, and we'll get them next time. Ignatieff must be breathing a sigh of relief right now. After all, he hasn't really lost anything. Layton, however, should be a little worried. Chief's loss may not be his fault, but the media doesn't have the Liberals to flog anymore.

12:20: Vaughan count: 17,738 Fantino, 17,069 Genco, 629 Bordian, 452 Rodriguez-Lorrain

12:16: With the current vote totals in all three ridings counted, 66,000 people have cast their vote. 39.6% voted Conservative, 38.1% voted Liberal, 19.3% voted NDP, 1.9% voted Green, and 1.2% voted for other parties. Compare that to the results in 2008, when it was 39.2% Con, 31.3% Lib, 22.5% NDP, 6.3% Green, and 0.6% others, and you'll be happy to be a Liberal tonight.

12:05: Not only has Lamoureux won, but he's built up a healthy margin, at least according to Elections Canada. With 143 of 153 polls reporting, Lamoureux has 46.9% to Chief's 40.8%, and (snicker) Javier's 10.3%. That's a 5% margin, and a healthy one to boot.

11:58: Vaughan vote count: 17,259 Fantino, 16,785 Genco, 614 Bordian (NDP), 440 Rodriguez-Lorrain (Green), 260/284 polls reporting

11:48: Vaughan is extremely close, with Genco about 500 votes behind Fantino, and maybe 30ish polls left to go. It seems like Fantino will probably take the cake, but if Genco gains even more, can anyone say recount?

11:45: CBC calls Winnipeg North for the Liberals. CalgaryGrit said it best: "as usual, it will be up to Western Canada to bail out the Liberal Party after Toronto abandons them."

11:37: Elections Canada seems to be stalled, or thinking. But, Vaughan seems to be pretty much Fantino's now, but as I said, not without a fight. So much for the notions of a "cakewalk."

11:28: BREAKING: Winnipeg Free Press called Winnipeg North for the Liberals. Damn right!

11:25: Know what would make me smile? The Conservatives losing their rebate in Winnipeg North. At 10.7% of the vote and dropping, Javier isn't looking to good.

11:20: Lamoureux's lead down to 200 in Winnipeg north, but Tony Genco now within striking distance of Fantino, 48.5% Con to 47.2% Lib, and 400 votes separating them

11:18: In my mind, there's now only two outcomes in Winnipeg North: Liberal win, or recount. Unless the last 20 polls all vote in droves for Chief, Lamoureux has enough of a cushion to win. If Chief does come close, he won't win enough votes to stave off a recount request.

11:15: Vaughan holding steady with 49% Con, 46% Lib, with 210/284 polls reporting. Not sure if Genco can make that up. Lamoureux holding steady with over 400 votes separating himself and Chief.

11:08: Dauphin-Swan River-Marquette called for - surprise - the Conservatives by CBC, with Robert Sopuck sitting with a healthy 58%

 11:05: Genco sees small bump in Vaughan, making it now 49-46 Fantino. Lamoureux now leads by 477 votes, 45.7% to 41.6%, with 124 of 153 polls reporting.
 
11:00: Both Fantino and Genco are above 10,000 votes, but the trend is sticking at 51-45. Meanwhile, only 30 polls left to go in Winnipeg North, or if the calculations of 27% voter turnout are right, about 3,000 voters. Lamoureux seems to hold steady, but can he keep it?

10:52: With 119 of 153 polls reporting, Lamoureux is holding steady with just over a 2-point lead over NDP Kevin Chief , leading by about 250 votes

10:48: Genco slowly closing the gap on Fantino, now 50.1% Con to 45.5% Lib, with about 900 votes separating the two. I'm not sure if he has enough time to close the gap, though.

10:42: 4-point lead for the Liberals in Winnipeg North, still 51-45 in Vaughan, Fantino ahead. 

10:37: Lamoureux now has a 2-point lead over Chief, with 110 of 153 polls reporting. That's not a good sign for the NDP.

10:33: Lamoureux now has a much larger lead, 1.0% above Kevin Chief, 3,900 votes to 3,818 for Chief. If we lose Vaughan but Winnipeg North turns red, I'll call that a win.

10:30: Vaughan isn't budging, with nearly 100 polls reporting, still 51% Con, 45% Lib. Lamoureux fell back in Winnipeg North, but still very well within striking distance. Could we be looking at a recount?

10:25: Lamoureux grabs slim lead in Winnipeg North, and I'm talking supermodel thin; 10 votes between him and Chief, 43.2% to 43.1%

10:20: Nail-biter in Winnipeg North, as only 55 votes separate Chief and Lamoureux. Vaughan's trend seems consistent at 51% Conservative, 45% Liberal

10:18: Third parties in Vaughan barely making a showing, with the NDP and Greens battling for third place at 1.4% each

 10:13: Vaughan is slowly trending for Fantino, but with only 45/284 polls reporting, 52-44 isn't set. Meanwhille, Lamoureux keeps rising and falling with Chief, now 43% NDP to 42% Lib

10:05: Liberals falling behind in Vaughan, 51% Con to 45% Lib, but gaining in Winnipeg North, 45% NDP to 41% Lib

10:00: Lamoureux starting to catch up to Chief in Winnipeg, now 45% NDP to 38% Lib, 14% Conservatives - so much for "coming up the middle" guys

9:58: Genco keeping steady lead, now 51.4% to Fantino's 44.6%, 10/284 polls reporting

9:55: NDP's Kevin Chief now has a commanding 10-point lead over Lamoureux in Winnipeg North, 45 to 35, with Conservative Julie Javier trailing in third at 17%

9:52: Genco takes lead in Vaughan, 49.6% to Fantino's 47.3%, with 2 polls reporting. Close race, no?

9:50: Results in Vaughan show Fantino leading 52 to 44%, or 10 votes

9:49: Christopher Scott Sarna of the Liberals holds on to second place in DSRM, now 60% Con, 17% Lib, and 15% NDP

9:46: Results out of Winnipeg North give Kevin Lamoureux 40.4%, to the NDP's 26.9% and the Conservative's 28.8%

9:44: Finally, some results, at least out of DSRM - Robert Sopuck of the Conservatives leads with 79.4% of the vote!...

9:35: Fun fact: two completely new parties are contesting Winnipeg North and Vaughan, the Pirate Party and the United Party.

9:30: Polls are now closed. Preliminary results in Vaughan: Fantino ahead because his name is higher alphabetically than Genco's

9:15: -15 minutes until the polls open, the advanced polls will be worthwhile watching, given that the advance polling in these ridings before almost perfectly reflected the vote at-large.

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