Saturday, November 13, 2010

By-election update: full slate!

The Liberals now have candidates in all three current by-election ridings, rounding out the slate with Christopher Scott Sarna in Dauphin-Swan River-Marquette; Kevin Lamoureux in Winnipeg North; and Tony Genco in Vaughan. We've actually had this full slate since Nov. 2nd apparently, but hey, it takes me a while to pick up on stuff.

Both Lamoureux and Genco have challenged the other main contenders in their ridings to debates (Kevin Chief for the NDP and Julian Fantino for the Conservatives, respectively), but no word on whether the challenges have been accepted. My guess is that they become ignored.

According to some number crunching by the Globe and Mail, done by's very own Eric Grenier, it's essentially more or less 2008 in all ridings except Vaughan, where there is a fight. However, I caution against reading too much into the results: like any sort of rolling average, riding specific results are extremely finnicky and not exactly trustworthy. And these are not polls - it's just "projections" based on the past results, and current national and regional polls.

However, if the Facebook war is anything to go by, Vaughan is going down to the wire: as of 8:00 am today, Fantino leads with 397 fans, Genco isn't far behind with 386, NDPer Kevin Bordian has 179 fans, and the Green candidate has 119. Close race. Pundit's Guide keeps tabs on all three ridings and all candidates, so pop on by to watch the Facebook battle unfold, as well as general updates and goodies on the by-elections.

Speaking of, where the heck is Julian Fantino? As blogged by James Bowie, Conservatives are apparently very afraid of what their "star candidate" is going to say, so he's off hiding somewhere. It's a sad day when you can't let your own candidate talk without him shooting himself in the foot.

Finally, Election Prediction has their by-election "centre" up, and if you're interested in sparring with a range of characters from reasonable, to insane, to clear Torybot, it's for you. Though, I question their calls: to claim Vaughan for the Conservatives confidently, and Winnipeg North as "Too Close to Call," seems kind of weird, almost like they need to be switched; Win North seems more like a sure thing for the NDP, and Vaughan seems more and more like a tossup. I don't get it. But, whatever.

And in case anyone was wondering - no, I've yet to go to Vaughan. Unless someone is willing to donate a car, it may be late into the campaign until I do.

Anyways, go Liberals! Yay!


  1. Thank you for the very kind recommendation.

    You may be interested in the methodological difference I have with 308 on those projections, and the bet that's ensued between us over them:

    Predicting By-elections is Risky Business

  2. I am interested, and I do agree. It's far to easy for the media to essentially "confine" election results to projections, even flawed as they are.

    Not that I don't mind seeing them, of course. It's always interesting the view the results of a *possible* outcome based on available, yet ultimately flawed data.