Sunday, October 24, 2010

Vaughan revisted: Nov. 29 is the date, how are the parties lining up?

The date has been officially set; the by-election in Vaughan, plus those in Winnipeg North and Dauphin--Swan River--Marquette, will occur on November 29th. That means a 36-day writ period, starting from today (October 24), which is pretty standard.

However, it has caught me off-guard. I was assuming that Harper would call four by-elections together, with the three mentions above plus Haute-Gasp├ęsie--La Mitis--Matane--Matap├ędia, where the Bloc MP just stepped down, and there was a good chance for Liberal Nancy Charest to score a win there. But, that's quite alright: Vaughan is the immediate, and most pressing, by-election right now.

So how are the parties stacking up now that the writ has dropped? Using the Pundit Guide's wonderful database, we can get a general idea:

The Conservatives have a candidate lined up, as everyone should know by now, as former Ontario top cop Julian Fantino, a controversial but locally popular candidate, is carrying their banner into the fight for this Liberal stronghold.

Some folks made a stink about how little the Liberals have in the bank as of Dec. '09's EDA statements, yet the Conservatives have much less. Last count, the Vaughan Liberal EDA was sitting on $11K, and the Conservative EDA $9.4K. The problem is, of course, in December '09, no one was aware that this riding would be up for grabs in a by-election, so lax fundraising on the part of all four parties at that point makes sense. We don't have more up-to-date numbers, however we can assume that the Conservatives will put that big blue fundraising machine they have to work for them.

The Liberals also seem to have a candidate in Tony Genco, who seems to be separated-at-birth from Denis Coderre. I say "seem" because it's not officially known yet whether or not he is the candidate, as Ignatieff said there was probably going to be a nomination fight if candidates showed up. Of course, because of the timing here, Genco has either been appointed (a possibility) or acclaimed by the riding association (most likely what happened), because any other interested candidates either failed to meet the required membership totals (I think candidates need to grab 400 new members, though it may be another number), or the timing is too quick for them, or both. We'll know for certain soon enough.

Like the Conservatives, we don't really know the financials of the local Party in Vaughan right now, aside from the 2009 EDA statements. Depending upon how much money the EDA has in the bank, which depends on how long ago they knew Bevilacqua was going to leave, Vaughan Liberals will most likely rely on transfers from the Party, the candidate's own funds, and what fundraising can be done during the writ period.

The NDP also have a chosen candidate here, as Kevin Bordian will be the standard-bearer for this by-election. He has a meager Facebook page, standing with Mr. Layton, but that's it. In 2008, the NDP spent $1.9K in the riding, or 2% of the total; as of 2009, they have $2,800 in the bank. Will they spend more than 2%? If they do, I doubt its because the central party wants to. A riding where they get routinely under 10% of the vote is hardly targeted.

Finally there is the Green candidate, Claudia Rodriguez-Lorrain. I would not be surprised if the Greens surpassed the NDP in Vaughan. Their candidate has an actual website, and they spent nearly $12.6K in 2008, raised $8.5K, and was transferred $7.2K, in 2008. As of 2009, they raised $1.4K.

So, today the writ was dropped, and tomorrow the race truly begins. Well, maybe Tuesday. Whenever Genco is officially named the candidate, I plan on doing a profile for him.

2 comments:

  1. Interesting analysis in mocking the NDP and Green candidates in a Liberal riding that is considered a stronghold.

    Mini-election Nov 2010
    The exact same case can be made against any party regarding the 10% minimum for reimbursement. Regarding these four ridings, the CPC were eligible for 3/4, LPOC 2/4, NDP 1/4 and Green 0/4. (See Pundits Guide)

    This has been framed as a two party race with the Liberals in need to hold this seat by pundits as Chantal Herbert.

    Can a star candidate from the second place finisher with "controversy" improve enough to win the seat in November?

    According to some on Lib blogs they should use his age of being too old at 67 year old. Genco 46 year old. (Far Wide)

    I think it will be a mistake if try ageism on Fantino. Pelosi-Reid Democrats are 70+. Layton, Ignatieff, Rae, Duceppe are older than the current PM.

    All of the Federal Parties will have to divert funds, direct resources to make this a competitive contest.

    A well funded EDA would have been more attractive for ANY candidate don't you agree?

    Organization Preparedness: Red Flag
    You don't find it strange that Maurizio leaving the Liberals for a local race is the worst kept secret for months? How can you accept the National Party, local candidates were unprepared?

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  2. CS, can I ask an honest question of you? Do you know how to organize your comments in any shape or form? I don't know which way is up.

    Anyways, a well-funded EDA is of course an incentive, yes. Until we know amounts later than Dec. 2009, however, we don't know how well-funded these EDAs actually are. PG's own database shows the Conservative EDA with $9K on hand - is that well-funded to you?

    Also, Bevilacqua didn't make his decision until long after Dec. 2009, or else he probably would have left earlier and not bothered with that whole immigration. The man hasn't been campaigning long, you know. Since maybe early September? If he had decided earlier to take this on, he would have been campaigning before then.

    As for the ageism crap, I don't know why you bring that up with me, because I haven't said anything. I think age can certainly be a factor in someone's choice, and I think it can even be a factor in efficiency. But it's definitely not something to disqualify someone.

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