Barack Obama's old Senate seat is up for grabs.
All told, almost every single major election prediction website south of the border predicts a huge Democratic windfall, predicting that at least 40 congressional seats will flip (the Republicans only need 39 to get control of the house). Nate Silver at 538 is currently predicting a loss nearing 50 seats for the Democrats, definitely turning control of the House of Representatives over to the GOP and installing John "Almost as orange as the NDP" Boehner as Speaker.
The news doesn't stop there. While I noted in my last post that things were not all bad for Democrats in the Senate, it's taking a turn for the worse. For every step forward for the Democrats, they seem to take two steps back.
While Christine O'Donnell handed the Democrats Delaware, West Virginia's Senate special election, in which a popular governor is running, is turning more and more in favour of the GOP candidate, John Raese.
As Barbara Boxer regains her stride in California, Harry Reid is beginning to fall back again, opening up the Senate to Sharron Angle. The fact that I don't even have to go in-depth on how crazy this woman is tells you a lot.
And just because Richard Blumenthal now seems secure in Connecticut, doesn't mean Democrats are performing well in other places, as they continue to battle to an essential stalemate in Illinois.
Meanwhile, north of the border, the main progressive party's chances are looking up. Not only has Ignatieff gained a backbone, taking the fight to the Conservatives and the NDP, but we're also rolling out policy and visibly ticking off the Harper regime to the point where they blame us for everything and anything.
Those factors, plus general discontentment with the government, is leading to a strengthened position for the Liberals in Ottawa. 308.com's Eric Grenier (now an apparent part-time writer at the Globe and Mail) recently did a tally of September's "best and worst case scenarios," where the best poll results for each main party (aside from the Bloc) in each region are put into his predictions, and the best and worst possible results in regards to that month's polling comes out.
For September's case, the Liberals have definitely worked their way up. While in July, the Liberals' best case scenario couldn't even give us a minority government, this time around we're able to form a fairly strong minority in the best of cases. Even the worst case scenario gives the Liberals the same amount of seats.
And while the best case for the Conservatives is a slim majority of 158 seats, their worst-case is another strong Liberal minority government, one that could survive with the support of the NDP alone.
Speaking of the NDP, their best-and-worst cases would either be a strong coalition partner in a not-so-strong coalition (121 for the Cons, 98 for the Libs, 42 for the Dippers - you do the math); or nearly be wiped off the spectrum with 14 remaining seats and 12% of the vote. It's clear where the surge in support for both Liberals and Conservatives is coming from (possibly because they ended up between a rock and a hard place).
So - Democrats are screwed, but Liberals are looking up. It's may not necessarily hold in either case, and most certainly the tides will turn again. Certainly with all the unpopular incumbent premiers right now, most of them Liberal (who took over from unpopular Conservative premiers, fyi), the federal Liberals could face some voter backlash. And as the GOP stumbles along, still the most unpopular political party, Democrats could get some 11th-hour support at the ballot box. But for right now, the trajectory is set.