Thursday, October 28, 2010

Another way to look at the Toronto election

With the official results of the Toronto municipal election out, including ward-by-ward results for the mayor's race, I decided to colour in my map based on the results. The map, as you can see, is above (click to see larger scale).

The map is coloured in according to the margin between the top two candidates, which is a fight between George Smitherman and Rob Ford, except for Ward 19, where Joe Pantalone came in second, ahead of Ford but behind Smitherman. As you can see, Ford easy outpaced Smitherman in most suburban wards, except for those in Don Valley West and Willowdale, where Ford led, but by a reduced amount compared to other wards.

The green lines designate the wards that hold the old municipalities that make up the Region of Toronto now - Etobicoke, East York, North York, Scarborough, Toronto, and York. It isn't an exact map of the old boundaries, but all wards hold a majority portion of one of the old cities.

Simply put, the old City of Toronto is dominated by Smitherman's wards. In fact, except for Ward 17, all wards containing Old Toronto went Smitherman. And only Ward 29, inside the old boundaries of East York, went Smitherman over Ford. Smitherman was regulated to Toronto while Ford easily romped around in other portions of the city, handily winning Etobicoke, York, and Scarborough, and more or less dominating North York, while East York was essentially split. The actual vote totals are as follows:


Ford: 76,952 -- 65.2%
Smitherman: 28,528 -- 24.2%
Pantalone: 9,046 -- 7.7%
Others: 3,588 -- 3.0%

East York:

Ford:  22,757 -- 40.7%
Smitherman: 22,389 -- 40.0%
Pantalone: 7,399 -- 13.2%
Others: 3,435 -- 6.1%

North York:

Ford: 76,762 -- 52.7%
Smitherman: 44,590 -- 30.6%
Pantalone: 15,010 -- 10.3%
Others: 9,190 -- 6.3%


Ford: 102,858 -- 57.0%
Smitherman: 49,870 -- 27.7%
Pantalone: 14,417 -- 8.0%
Others: 13,211 -- 7.3%


Smitherman: 135,215 -- 50.6%
Ford: 79,097 -- 29.6%
Pantalone: 43,063 -- 16.1%
Others: 10,093 -- 3.8%


Ford: 26,078 -- 56.1%
Smitherman: 10,540 -- 22.7%
Pantalone: 6,287 -- 13.5%
Others: 3,612 -- 7.8%

Given that Smitherman lost outside of Old Toronto, and that a good deal of Ford's opposition in Council is most likely to come from wards in the old city, one wonders whether or not the 2014 challenger to Ford can actually break this cycle. Will people go for another downtown dilettante? Or will someone from the suburbs heed the call to arms?

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