Wednesday, September 8, 2010

Nanos' Hidden Good News for the Liberals

Everyone is talking about how Nik Nanos' most recent poll has come up with a statistical tie between he two major parties, stuck around 33% each. According to, that gives us a 119-114 seat count, favouring the Conservatives - a close, and pretty much untenable government number. Trudeau did it, but Harper cannot.

However, others seemed to have glossed over the other part of Nanos' polls - the leadership index. And while the Globe and Mail reports doom and gloom, they didn't even mention one of the most symbolic and important parts - who is seen as the best PM?

Not that Ignatieff has suddenly moved to the top of the crowd. Far from it - he's 12 points behind Harper, 29-17. But Iggy is also now about two points ahead of Layton, and is very competitive in Ontario - 27% view Harper as the Best PM, while 23% think the same of Iggy. Last time, it was 30-19, with Layton at 16% - now Layton is at 10%. Seems something is taking its toll on Mr. Layton.

Major movement? Hardly. But enough to point that Iggy is getting some traction, while both Harper and Layton are falling away. The one blemish: Quebec, where Iggy comes in second-to-last, only ahead of Elizabeth May. Layton comes firs with 25% expressing confidence that he would be best PM, then Duceppe (21%), Harper (20%), Iggy (15%), and May (3%).

Kind of counter-intuitive, since Layton and his deputy Mulcair are failing Quebecers, but there you have it.

You can see the results here.

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