Tuesday, June 22, 2010

Keep trying, Mr. Hudak....

A new poll has come out from Ipsos Reid, detailing the mood of the provincial electorate, and it's not a surprising one.

The top numbers are as such: McGuinty Liberals - 37%, Hudak's Harrisites - 32%, and Horwath's NDP - 20%, with the ever-present yet ever-seatless Greens (now lead by the ever-surprised-looking Mike Schreiner) at 11%.

This compares to the 2007 provincial election results, 42-32-17-8 (rounded up, mind you).

The poll also details results in certain regions of the province, including two key areas for the Opposition parties: the GTA for the PCs, and northern Ontario for the NDP.

In the GTA, the Liberals lead the PCs 43-26, with the NDP bringing up the rear at 20%. That is not a good number, as governments are made or destroyed in the GTA. If Hudak can't gain traction here, then he's toast. He's actually underperforming John Tory's 2007 debacle in the GTA.

In northern Ontario, where former NDP leader Howard Hampton is from, the NDP needs to be neck-in-neck with the Liberals if they want to get some traction. Unfortunately, they aren't. In fact, the big winners up north has been the PCs, who have jumped a full 7% since 2007, while the Liberals and NDP are down 8% and 7% respectively, as well as the Greens, who have gone from 5% in 2007 to 14%. The Liberals are hurt, but the NDP can't be too happy either.

Also of a negative note to the Hudak Neocons - eastern Ontario, a bastion of federal Conservative support, is breaking heavily for the Liberals. In 2007, the Liberals led the PCs in the popular vote 41-39; they now lead them 42-33, with the NDP and Greens gobbling up the rest. That can't be too pleasant.

Unfortunately, it isn't all good news for Dalton. In southwestern Ontario, where the Liberals in 2007 managed to win a whopping 45% compared to the PC's 29%, is now falling over himself, behind Hudak's PCs 43-26, with the NDP close behind at 22%. Not good at all.

So the big winners on the face of this are the NDP and Greens, who see increases in their votes. But the true winner is Dalton McGuinty, aka Norman Bates, aka Pointy Head, who with either moderately-good or excellent regional results in all except the southwest, can breathe a little easier, because he looks set for at least another minority government.

Here's a crude seat forecast based off of the UBC election forecaster:

Liberals: 37.2% - 60 seats
PCs: 32.0% - 30 seats
NDP: 19.8% - 17 seats
Greens: 10.6% - 0 seats

Doesn't take into account all the odd regional swings, but more or less captures the poll results. And yes, McGuinty retains his majority, a healthy one at that.

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