Saturday, September 20, 2014

New Brunswick PC Party moving up

Not much to post right now, watching the NZ election (expect a post about this in a few days) but wanted to update my New Brunswick prediction.

Polls say that NDP voters are switching to the Tories. I honestly can not fully understand this myself. I will be making an additional post about this later on; but wanted to update this now.

Friday, September 19, 2014

Scotland results and ugly map

I've coloured this map in a very interesting way.

Dark Green are areas that voted YES

Light Green are areas that voted NO, but under the Scotland-wide average.

Light Red are areas that voted NO

Dark Red are areas that voted NO, but are one "gap" away.

Scotland voted 55.3% no to 44.7% yes, slightly off from my prediction of 57%-43%.

This makes for a gap of 5.3% from 50%. The Dark Reds are those that are 5.3% beyond this the other way, or, areas won by NO at at least 60.6%.

This helps see where the real divide is (since NO won convincingly) as well as what the map might have looked like had YES won with 55.3%.

This will likely be something people will look at in 15 years at the next Scottish Referendum. This recent one played out quite like the 1980 Quebec referendum. If the next one plays out like 1995, with the YES side gaining 10 points, the UK's days may yet be numbered.

Tuesday, September 16, 2014

More on Toronto

I created a Toronto "Electomatic" - though warning, it's of limited use since the mayor's race is a city-wide winner-take-all and the individual ward results do not matter.

What is interesting is the map it produces:

What I find most interesting is there are 3 wards that will vote for John Tory that are all currently held by huge Ford Nation members. These are highlighted in light-Green.

Kyle and I are discussing the possibility of endorsements for City Council in Toronto; if we do go that route, one thing I want to see, is a focus on those wards where a bit more effort can knock off a Ford enabler. While we've not decided anything in these 3 wards just yet, it's a good place to look if you are itching for action.

Monday, September 15, 2014

Toronto Graphics

I decided to up my game and present far better graphics on the Toronto election. That sad doughnut will never be seen again.

This is a poll average combining my earlier "poll average" with the two most recent polls. I added in the past 'average' in to stabilize it a bit, even though said average already contains these two polls.

This graphic uses the (un)official campaign colours.

Feel free to leave any feedback.

edited to add black bar at bottom so preview image is not "squashed"

Saturday, September 13, 2014

Omnibus Minipost

A second poll from a small firm has come out and pegged Doug Ford at 16%. I decided to do some poll averaging, including the two polls, the last Rob Ford poll with the 80% modifier I noted earlier, the previous Doug Ford poll from months ago, and lastly, my own personal "gut" poll. The result is as follows:

42.8% - John Tory
25.6% - Olivia Chow
25.4% - Doug Ford

As for who is what candidate in terms of party support, I'll say this: I colour the names because it makes the race easier to follow for those not familiar with politics in Toronto. Clearly the "party lines" are not going to be crisp, however, in general, those who like the "blue" party, will, in general, like Doug Ford, while those who like the "orange" party, will like Chow, etc so on and so forth. I will continue to colour these three candidates in this manner until the election date, but will not be adding any party labels to any of them, as, clearly, they are all independents. I threw this on a graph to show, as opposed to tell, why I want "party" colours for these candidates. I plan to make more (and far better) graphics like this as the race continues.

There are two state elections in Germany on Sunday. While I had planned to do a minor write-up on both, the simple reality is both incumbent government coalitions are expected to be re-elected with around 55% of the vote, and thus, I'll simply leave it at that.

More interesting is what is going on in Sweden. None of the proposed coalitions seem to work, but a grand coalition between the two major parties would secure a majority. The election itself is Sunday, and the actual final numbers will determine which combinations work and which do not.

After a crazy third ballot due to a non-tie tie second ballot tie non-tie, Paul Davis has emerged as the Premier-Designate. He replaces Tom Marshall, who replaced Fred Corbett (or something), who replaced Tom Marshall, who replaced Kathy Dunderdale, who replaced Danny Williams. Marshall actually never left his post, with his prior "replacement" resigning prior to taking office. That joke added to this "mess" of a second ballot, in which it became pointed out that 50%+1 is not a majority, but slightly more than a majority. In this case, 340 VS 339, as, 340.5 is actually 50%+1.

I do not expect many changes from my last newfoundland predictions, though some St. John's area ridings might be solidified; in particular, the "middle" of the three light-blue ridings is now that of the leader, and would thus be expected to be held by the party.

New Brunswick
A new poll that I've only found reference to on Twitter pegs the Liberals at 42%, the Tories at 32%, and the NDP at 13%. I've added this to a poll average (weighted to forum's other poll)* to produce this:

45% - Liberal
31% - PC
16% - NDP
6% - Green
2% - Alliance

And this map:

*This means I added the two forum polls, then treated that as a single poll with a weight of one third, when combining it with the other two polls to come out within the past month. IE each forum poll was weighted at 1/6th.


New Brunswick Liberal Association

The New Brunswick Liberal Association is a part of the Liberal Party of Canada, however, the two do not share membership lists. Why?

Well at one time, the NB Liberals claimed 450,000 members. Again, no extra 0's in there. They did give me the disclaimer that "many" of these people likely had "since moved out of province" or "passed on". I tried to find out if the lifetime memberships are still a thing. According to the most recent membership form, from 2009, free lifetime memberships are indeed still a thing. 2009 however is far from 2014, so to find out, I simply called the party, not 5 minutes ago. Due to the election, they are open today, and confirmed that the above is still the case, but that they have slightly fewer members, but did not give a hard number.

I know that this was one reason the Federal party took so long in moving to one-member-one-vote; with provinces like NB handing out memberships forever, for free, it was seen as unfair to those areas that did the traditional $10-for-a-year scheme.

Even in modern history, the NB Liberals have been among the most successful provincial Liberal party in the country. Their base of support is in the Acadian areas of the province.

The official platform is very well written and presented. The party's leader, Brian Gallant, is from Shediac Bridge, one of the most big L Liberal areas of the country, big L as in brand loyalty. This makes Gallant a Francophone Acadian, and he would thus be the first Acadian to win an election in the province since Louis Robichaud, the most famous and popular Liberal leader in the history of the province.

Prior to the election of Robichaud, New Brunswick was an English province. As I mentioned, I lived in the province for a year. I have family there, and my maternal Grandparents both were born and raised in New Brunswick. My Grandmother in particular was born and raised in Bouctouche, very close to Shediac and Saint-Antoine; the latter being where Robichaud was born and where I lived. My grandmother gave me some insight into how things were done in the pre-Robichaud New Brunswick.

Upon going in to town - Moncton in particular - she was instructed to "Speak white", which meant, do not speak French in public. Even in Dieppe, the Francophone suburb of Moncton, many people would speak English in public due to the way French was perceived; something to be ashamed of.

Robichaud won election in 1960. By 1963 the government was marred in scandal, and Robichaud called a snap election. Due, in part, to a victory by the Federal party in the middle of the campaign, Robichaud was able to lead the Liberals to a re-election victory.

It was that term, between 1963 and 1967, that saw the start of the reformist programs of Robichaud. "Equal Opportunity", which sought to break down the wealth gap between Anglophones and Francophones, was brought in. In the following term, after the 1967 election, Robichaud saw unrest, with Francophone students staging sit-ins and protests demanding more rights. The Campaign was eventually successful and saw New Brunswick become an officially bi-lingual province.

Following Hatfield, the Liberals would return under Frank McKenna, winning every seat in the province. The McKenna government was much more of a blue-liberal government, appealing to business and McKenna himself was known to say the "best social program we have is a job." After 10 years at the top, McKenna resigned as Premier, and the party went on to defeat in the following election.

Shawn Graham is the most recent Liberal premier. Graham, like McKenna, had a more moderate approach. In the end, however, voters tossed the government and replaced it with the Tories under David Alward.

Today, Brian Gallant is leader, and is running on a very progressive campaign, one that harkens back to the days of Louis Robichaud. The party is committing to raising income taxes on the "super rich" and improve social programs.

Polls all point to an easy Liberal victory.

How easy of a victory?

Pretty easy, given the numbers.

Things still are yet to be decided however. The next poll (or polls) will help clear up exactly where everybody stands. Right now, however, a Liberal landslide is to be expected.

Friday, September 12, 2014

Quick update on Doug and Rob Ford and Toronto

Very short update about where the polls might go.

First, I want to get this out of the way; John Tory is for all intents and purposes, the big L Liberal candidate for Mayor. Brad Duguid, a Liberal MPP, has endorsed him. In addition, as said earlier, most Liberals I know within the city are backing John Tory. I will thus continue to treat him as such. Doug Ford meanwhile was a prospective PC Candidate, and Olivia Chow is a card-carrying New Democrat. While elections in Toronto are non-partisan, it is quite clear the top three candidates have some level of backing from each of the three parties. This was true in 2010, true in 2006, and will likely continue to be true for the time being.

Now, on to the polls.
We have actually had Doug Ford polled before in a Forum poll from some time ago.
Doug was able to get about 80% of the response his brother did.

This would suggest the following result:

46% - John Tory
27% - Olivia Chow
25% - Doug Ford

However, a flash poll, also by Forum, has produced the following

41% - John Tory
34% - Doug Ford
19% - Olivia Chow

Chow has been on a downward trajectory for a number of weeks now, with fewer and fewer non-NDP-type voters backing her. John Tory seems to be sucking up that voterbase, and maintains a lead according to the flash poll.

Personally, I do not expect this boost to Ford to last. I also expect Chow's vote to continue to decrease to NDP levels, meaning closer to 15% I also expect most Anti-Ford supporters to gather in the John Tory camp, and push his levels up, while Doug Ford returns to more traditional Ford-levels of support.

Thus my prediction for election day is as follows:

50% - John Tory
30% - Doug Ford
15% - Olivia Chow